What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Kocaelispor and 1.1 from Samsunspor, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.1 goals (xG 1.0-1.1), and two is enough to land it, landing about 66% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. The price is shorter than our own read of about 66%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
