How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Kocaelispor and 1.1 from Samsunspor, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Kocaelispor come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.1 goals (xG 1.0-1.1), and two is enough to land it, landing about 66% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Samsunspor have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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