What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Samsunspor and 2.0 from Fenerbahce, so Fenerbahce come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.5 goals between the two (xG 1.5-2.0), landing about 67% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. At around 67% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
