What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Lugano and 1.0 from Basel, so Lugano come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Lugano come into this on five straight wins. Basel come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Basel to score 1 or fewer. This is about Basel's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Lugano have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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