What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from Lugano and 0.8 from Grasshoppers, so Lugano come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Grasshoppers come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lugano to win. Lugano are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.8), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Lugano have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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