How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Al-Wahda to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Al-Dhafra and 2.0 from Al-Wahda, so Al-Wahda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al-Wahda to win. Al-Wahda shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.0), and we make them about 65% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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