How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC or Draw 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Al-Wasl and 1.7 from Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC, so Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC or Draw. This covers Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FC or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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