What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Club Atletico Peñarol and 0.7 from Club Atlético Progreso, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol to win. Club Atletico Peñarol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.7), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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