What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Club Atlético Progreso and 1.3 from Defensor Sporting, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Club Atlético Progreso come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Defensor Sporting or Draw. This covers Defensor Sporting or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Defensor Sporting have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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