What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Deportivo Maldonado and 0.8 from Cerro, so Deportivo Maldonado come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Cerro come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportivo Maldonado to win. Deportivo Maldonado are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.8), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Deportivo Maldonado have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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