How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from VPS and 1.0 from TPS, so VPS come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
VPS come into this on two straight wins. TPS come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 52%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.96, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 52% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.