What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Monagas SC and 1.1 from Estudiantes de Mérida, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Monagas SC or Draw. This covers Monagas SC or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Monagas SC are unbeaten in their last three — two wins and one draw.
✓Estudiantes de Mérida have won one of their last three.
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