How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made CR Bélouizdad to win 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from CR Bélouizdad and 0.6 from ES Sétif, so CR Bélouizdad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CR Bélouizdad to win. CR Bélouizdad are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.6), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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