How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made MB Rouissat to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from MB Rouissat and 0.8 from Olympique Akbou, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: MB Rouissat to win. MB Rouissat are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-0.8), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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