CR Temouchent v US Biskra prediction

What to expect

CR Temouchent host US Biskra at home in the Algerian Ligue 1 on 2 November. Temouchent sit 11th out of 16 with eight points from seven games and a goal difference of minus three. They are just one place above the relegation zone, with ES Ben Aknoun a point ahead and CS Constantine a point behind. Biskra are bottom of the table, 16th with only two points and a minus ten goal difference. A win for Biskra would lift them out of the automatic relegation spots, while Temouchent only need a point to stay clear of the drop zone. The clash therefore has a lot at stake for both clubs.

Temouchent have had a mixed run in their last seven matches, winning two, drawing two and losing three. Their most recent result was a 2-1 away win over ES Sétif. Before that they drew 1-1 with ASO Chlef at home, then suffered a 2-0 home loss to MB Rouissat and a 1-0 away defeat by MC Alger. Earlier they beat JS Kabylie 1-0 at home and lost 2-0 away to MC Oran. In those seven games they have scored five goals and let in eight. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in three matches. Their home form in the last four fixtures shows one win, two draws and one loss.

Biskra come into the game on a run of four straight defeats. In their last eight outings they have not won, drawing two and losing six. The most recent result was a 1-0 home loss to MC Alger. Prior to that they were beaten 4-1 away by JS Kabylie, then lost 1-0 at home to MC Oran, and suffered a 4-0 away defeat by CS Constantine. They managed a 0-0 home draw with JS Saoura and earlier fell 1-0 at home to CR Bélouizdad. Across those eight games Biskra have scored only three goals while conceding fourteen. They have kept a single clean sheet and have failed to score in six matches. Their last away game was a loss, and they have not scored in three of their last four road fixtures.

When the two sides have met before the games have been low-scoring affairs. The numbers we have suggest a tight contest, with an expected total of just 1.8 goals. Temouchent are expected to score about 1.2 goals on average, while Biskra average only 0.6. The chance of Temouchent finding the net is 76 percent, but the chance of them scoring twice or more drops to 39 percent. Biskra’s chance of scoring at all is only 39 percent and the odds of a double are just 9 percent. All signs point to a single goal deciding the match, or perhaps a clean-sheet win for the home side.

We pick a Temouchent win. The price of 1.89 is longer than our own reading of the game, which gives Temouchent about a 60 percent chance to come out on top. The pick looks clean because Temouchent are the stronger side on the numbers and have shown they can still win away, while Biskra have struggled to score and are on a four-game losing streak. The bet would go wrong if Biskra manage to break their drought and score first, or if Temouchent fail to convert any of their chances and slip to a draw. Otherwise the odds of a home win look solid.