How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made MC Alger to win 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from MC Alger and 0.5 from USM Khenchela, so MC Alger come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
MC Alger come into this on two straight wins. USM Khenchela come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: MC Alger to win. MC Alger are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.5), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
MC Alger have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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