How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made ES Sétif to win 65%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from ES Sétif and 0.6 from CR Temouchent, so ES Sétif come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
ES Sétif come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: ES Sétif to win. ES Sétif are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.6), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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