How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made USM Alger or Draw 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from USM Alger and 1.0 from CR Bélouizdad, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
CR Bélouizdad come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: USM Alger or Draw. This covers USM Alger or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
USM Alger have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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