What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from MC Alger and 0.6 from MC Oran, so MC Alger come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: MC Alger to win. MC Alger are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.6), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn MC Oran a draw or better. We make it about 67%: a lean, not a lock.