How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Olympique Akbou or Draw 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Olympique Akbou host CS Constantine at home in the Algeria Ligue 1 on 23 October 2026. Both clubs sit in the middle of the table, Akbou in eighth place with seven points from five games and a neutral goal difference, while Constantine are ninth, also on seven points but from six games and a –1 goal difference. The two are level on points and only one place apart, so a win could lift Akbou a spot higher and push Constantine further down. The standings show that a draw would keep the order unchanged, but a loss would see the teams swap places. The numbers we have suggest a tight, low-scoring encounter, with Akbou slightly favoured.
Akbou’s recent form has been mixed. In their last four matches they have won once, drawn once and lost twice. The most recent result was a 2-1 victory over ES Ben Aknoun at home, followed by a goalless draw with JS Saoura away. Before that they fell 3-2 to USM Alger at home and 2-0 to MB Rouissat away. Over those four games Akbou have scored four goals and let in six. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in two matches. Two of the four games featured three or more goals, and in both of those the opposition also scored.
Constantine have had a more volatile run. In their last five fixtures they have won twice and lost three, with no draws. Their latest game was a 4-2 defeat at home to JS El Biar, preceded by a 2-0 loss away to USM Khenchela. Before that they beat US Biskra 4-0 at home, suffered a 5-1 loss away to ES Sétif and earlier enjoyed a 3-0 home win over ASO Chlef. In total they have scored ten and conceded eleven in this stretch. They kept two clean sheets but also went goalless in one match. Four of the five games produced three or more goals, and in two of those both sides found the net.
When the two sides meet, the recent statistics point to a low-scoring affair. Akbou’s chance of scoring at all sits at 73 %, while Constantine’s is 52 %. The likelihood of either side scoring twice or more is modest – 38 % for Akbou and 18 % for Constantine. Both teams have been involved in games with three or more goals, but each also has a record of keeping clean sheets. The pattern suggests a cautious approach, with both sides aware that a single goal could decide the match.
Our pick is Olympique Akbou or a draw. The price of 1.19 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so covering the draw gives us a wider safety net while still backing the slight edge Akbou have. We see an 80 % chance that this selection will be right. For it to go wrong, Akbou would have to be shut out and Constantine would need to win, which looks unlikely given Akbou’s higher probability of scoring and the overall low-scoring outlook. The price looks good for the risk, and we think the result will stay close.
Recent results
CS Constantine have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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