How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper. Our goal estimates are about one for AIK and a little under two for Hammarby, so we expect roughly 2.8 goals in total. That means the match could be open but not a goal-fest. Both teams have been scoring, but the numbers suggest it will stay under four goals.
Looking at the recent run, AIK have won three of their last five league games and are coming in on three straight victories. Hammarby have been even stronger, with four wins and a draw in their last five and four wins in a row. In the last five meetings between the clubs the results have been balanced – two wins each and one draw – and those games have averaged two goals. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 to AIK.
We pick the Under 3.5 goals. Our estimate of 2.8 goals sits comfortably below the line, and the price of 1.58 is longer than what we think the game will produce, which makes the pick attractive. We feel confident that the result will stay under the limit about 71 % of the time.
It would have to take a sudden burst of scoring from either side for us to be wrong. Four or more goals would be needed to break the pick. While we think the chance of that is low, we are not completely certain, so we hold the view with a moderate level of confidence.
Recent meetings
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