What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from AIK and 1.7 from Hammarby, so Hammarby come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
AIK come into this on four straight wins. Hammarby come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.1-1.7) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 71%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. At around 71% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
