How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Hammarby to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Degerfors and 1.9 from Hammarby, so Hammarby come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hammarby to win. Hammarby shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.0), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hammarby have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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