What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Degerfors and 2.0 from Hammarby, so Hammarby come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hammarby to win. Hammarby shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.0), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Degerfors have won three of their last five.
✓Hammarby have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
19 Jul 2026Hammarby 4 - 0 Degerfors
3 Nov 2025Degerfors 1 - 1 Hammarby
26 May 2025Hammarby 1 - 0 Degerfors
25 May 2023Degerfors 2 - 2 Hammarby
2 Apr 2023Hammarby 3 - 1 Degerfors
