How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Kalmar to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Elfsborg and 0.9 from Kalmar, so Elfsborg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Kalmar come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kalmar to score 1 or fewer. This is about Kalmar's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Kalmar have won three of the last five meetings.
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