Malmo FF v Orgryte: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Malmo FF to score 2+ 66%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.4 goals from Malmo FF and 1.0 from Orgryte, so Malmo FF come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Malmo FF to score 2+. This is about Malmo FF's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 2.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to score 2 or more, which we make about 66%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.