How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Hammarby (Draw No Bet) 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Kalmar and 1.8 from Hammarby, so Hammarby come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hammarby (Draw No Bet). Hammarby are favoured here (xG 1.0-1.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Hammarby defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Hammarby have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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