How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Kalmar to score 1 or fewer 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Malmo FF and 1.0 from Kalmar, so Malmo FF come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Kalmar to score 1 or fewer. This is about Kalmar's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 78%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Malmo FF have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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