How it turned out
The game finished with 1 goal.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Mjallby to win. Mjallby are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.0), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Mjallby have not won any of their last five.
✓Elfsborg have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
21 May 2026Elfsborg 1 - 1 Mjallby
4 Oct 2025Mjallby 2 - 0 Elfsborg
30 Mar 2025Elfsborg 2 - 2 Mjallby
18 Aug 2024Mjallby 1 - 1 Elfsborg
21 Jul 2024Elfsborg 3 - 1 Mjallby
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Elfsborg a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 56%.
