How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Alashkert FC to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Ararat and 1.7 from Alashkert FC, so Alashkert FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Alashkert FC come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Alashkert FC to win. Alashkert FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.7), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Alashkert FC have won four of the last five meetings.
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