How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Sardarapat or Draw 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Sardarapat and 1.2 from Van, so Sardarapat come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sardarapat or Draw. This covers Sardarapat or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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