What to expect
We expect about 3.1 goals from FC Noah and 0.5 from Gandzasar, so FC Noah come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FC Noah come into this on two straight wins. Gandzasar come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Noah to win. FC Noah are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.1-0.5), and we make them about 90% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 88 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.10, which works out at about 91 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Gandzasar only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 90% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
