What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Ararat and 2.5 from Ararat Armenia, so Ararat Armenia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Ararat Armenia to win. Ararat Armenia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.4), and we make them about 74% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ararat to spoil this. We make it about 74% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.