What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Gandzasar and 1.3 from Ararat, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gandzasar come into this on two straight defeats. Ararat come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Gandzasar to win. Gandzasar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.