What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Austria Salzburg and 1.2 from Kapfenberger SV, so Austria Salzburg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Kapfenberger SV come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Austria Salzburg to win. Austria Salzburg are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.2), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Kapfenberger SV a draw or better. We make it about 58% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
