What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from FC Wacker Innsbruck and 1.2 from SKN St. Pölten, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
SKN St. Pölten come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Wacker Innsbruck to win. FC Wacker Innsbruck are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.2), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.20, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
SKN St. Pölten only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 40%.
