How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Austria Salzburg to win 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Austria Salzburg and 1.1 from Sturm Graz II, so Austria Salzburg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Austria Salzburg to win. Austria Salzburg are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.1), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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