How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made FC Liefering to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from FC Liefering and 1.4 from SKN St. Pölten, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FC Liefering to win. FC Liefering are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.4), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.10, which works out at about 32 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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