What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Kapfenberger SV and 2.5 from BW Linz, so BW Linz come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: BW Linz to win. BW Linz shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.5), and we make them about 74% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Kapfenberger SV a draw or better. We make it about 74% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.