How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Under 3.5 goals 65%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but A. Lustenau have a slight edge. Our goal expectations are 1.8 for the home side and 1.0 for Tirol, so we expect about 2.8 goals in total. That suggests a game that is not wide open, but also not a defensive slog. Both teams have been mixing wins, draws and losses recently, so the match could swing either way.
Looking at the recent run, A. Lustenau have taken one win, three draws and one loss in their last five league outings. Tirol have struggled a bit more, with no wins, two draws and three defeats in the same span and they come in on two straight losses. In the five meetings between the clubs, Tirol have the better record with three wins to Lustenau’s one, and one draw. Those games have averaged 3.2 goals, and the latest encounter ended 0-0, showing that low-scoring affairs are possible.
We pick the under 3.5 goals. Our thinking is simple: the expected total is 2.8 goals, well below the line. The price of 1.46 matches our view of the game. With a 67 % chance of being right, the bet sits close to what we feel the match will produce.
It would have to take a sudden burst of goals for us to be wrong. If both sides find the net twice or more, the total would jump above the line. That would require a big shift from the recent low-scoring pattern. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know a few extra goals would flip the result.
Recent meetings
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