What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from A. Lustenau and 1.1 from Tirol, so A. Lustenau come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Tirol come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.7-1.1) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 67%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 67% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
