How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Tirol to score 1 or fewer 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from LASK and 0.9 from Tirol, so LASK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Tirol to score 1 or fewer. This is about Tirol's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 78%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
LASK have won four of the last five meetings.
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