How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Ried and 1.8 from Salzburg, so Salzburg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Salzburg come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.8 goals (xG 1.0-1.8), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 80%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Salzburg have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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