What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Tirol and 1.8 from Salzburg, so Salzburg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Salzburg come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Salzburg to win. Salzburg shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.8), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Tirol to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 58%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
