How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made FK Vitebsk or Draw 86%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from FK Vitebsk and 0.9 from Naftan Novopolotsk, so FK Vitebsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FK Vitebsk or Draw. This covers FK Vitebsk or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.06, which works out at about 94 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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