What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from FK Vitebsk and 0.9 from Naftan Novopolotsk, so FK Vitebsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Naftan Novopolotsk come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FK Vitebsk to win. FK Vitebsk are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Naftan Novopolotsk a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 65%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
