What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from Naftan Novopolotsk and 2.8 from ML Vitebsk, so ML Vitebsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Naftan Novopolotsk come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: ML Vitebsk to win. ML Vitebsk shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-2.7), and we make them about 83% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
ML Vitebsk have won three of the last three meetings.
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