How it turned out
We projected about 4.2 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.1 goals from Club Brugge and 1.1 from Cercle Brugge, so Club Brugge come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Club Brugge come into this on three straight wins. Cercle Brugge come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club Brugge to win. Club Brugge are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.0-1.1), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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