What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Independiente Petrolero and 2.0 from Bolívar, so Bolívar come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Bolívar to win. Bolívar shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-2.0), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Independiente Petrolero only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 52%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
