How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Bolívar to win 50%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Independiente Petrolero and 2.0 from Bolívar, so Bolívar come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Independiente Petrolero come into this on five straight defeats. Bolívar come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bolívar to win. Bolívar shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-2.0), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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