What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Oriente Petrolero and 1.7 from Always Ready, so Always Ready come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Always Ready come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Always Ready to win. Always Ready shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.7), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.84, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Oriente Petrolero only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 45%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
