What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from The Strongest and 0.9 from Blooming, so The Strongest come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: The Strongest to win. The Strongest are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 73% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Blooming have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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