How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Sport Recife or Draw 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Botafogo SP and 1.2 from Sport Recife, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Botafogo SP come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sport Recife or Draw. This covers Sport Recife or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Sport Recife have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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