How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Vila Nova or Draw 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Vila Nova and 1.0 from Juventude, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Vila Nova or Draw. This covers Vila Nova or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Vila Nova have won four of the last five meetings.
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