What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Juventude and 0.6 from Operario Ferroviario, so Juventude come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Juventude to win. Juventude are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.6), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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