How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made CRB to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Ponte Preta and 1.5 from CRB, so CRB come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ponte Preta come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CRB to win. CRB shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.5), and we make them about 53% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ponte Preta have won three of the last five meetings.
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